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January 29, 2018

Caution: You Are Here


After a record start to 2018, what's next? If the correlations to 1999 and 2007 are to remain consistent, trouble may be just around the corner. The recent decline of volatility as measured by the VIX Index may be a key warning sign.

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SPX 1-29-2018.fw

S&P 500 Index 1.18.2018

Data source: Bloomberg, L.P.


Recent


September 7, 2017

What’s Next for Equities

Well it’s official, the lazy days of summer are over. The kids are back in school, Wall Street is back to work and Halloween decorations are already showing up in stores. Volatility in markets has returned, and our risk models are beginning to make adjustments to portfolios. September and October are notorious for some of the highest market volatility on […]
March 14, 2017

What The Fed is Watching

Last week we shared how the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability Indicator reading reached the 100 percent level for a rate increase at the March 15th FOMC meeting. (See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, […]
March 8, 2017

Bond Investors: Beware the Ides of March

While stocks are off to a strong start this year, most bond indexes are down and the risks for bond investors continues to grow. The culprit? Rising interest rates. When rates rise, bond prices fall. The next Federal Open Markets Committee interest rate announcement is March 15th. What is the probability of another increase in rates? What about further rate […]

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