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June 13, 2019

Could a Fed Rate Cut Be Bearish?


After the S&P 500 suffered one of its worst May’s in decades, stocks are rallying so far in June on expectations the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. Despite the current optimism, history has shown that a rate cut from here could actually be bearish for stocks.

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WIRP blur 6-12-2019
Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability
Data source: Bloomberg, L.P.

Recent


January 29, 2018

Caution: You Are Here

Its been an exciting start to 2018 for U.S. Equities. The advance of +6.2% in the S&P 500 Index in the first three weeks this year makes it the best start to a new year since 1987, and continues the strong momentum from last year. In 2017 the Dow Jones Industrial Average made 70 new all time highs, gained a […]
September 7, 2017

What’s Next for Equities

Well it’s official, the lazy days of summer are over. The kids are back in school, Wall Street is back to work and Halloween decorations are already showing up in stores. Volatility in markets has returned, and our risk models are beginning to make adjustments to portfolios. September and October are notorious for some of the highest market volatility on […]
March 14, 2017

What The Fed is Watching

Last week we shared how the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability Indicator reading reached the 100 percent level for a rate increase at the March 15th FOMC meeting. (See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, […]

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