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January 29, 2018

Caution: You Are Here


After a record start to 2018, what's next? If the correlations to 1999 and 2007 are to remain consistent, trouble may be just around the corner. The recent decline of volatility as measured by the VIX Index may be a key warning sign.

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SPX 1-29-2018.fw

S&P 500 Index 1.18.2018

Data source: Bloomberg, L.P.


Recent


February 17, 2017

Winning Streaks:
Why You Should Pay Attention

The current rally in U.S. equities is quite extraordinary. New all-time highs, falling volatility and broad sector participation are just a few of the characteristics of the rally that started in November 2016 and continues today. The current momentum is especially interesting considering it was born in the backdrop of a highly-contested U.S. election, and endured a December 2016 interest […]
May 11, 2016

Chapter 11 Filings Reach 2008 Level

Economic imbalances, anemic global growth and the bursting of the commodity super cycle has created a challenging environment for over-levered companies, a climate strikingly similar to 2008. Through May 3, 2016 US Chapter 11 filings have accelerated to match the pace set in the Great Recession of 2008. So far this year, 37 companies with $100 million or more in […]
January 12, 2016

Raising Rates Into Defaults

Yesterday markets saw a large default in the energy space.  Arch Coal filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy citing tumbling domestic coal demand as the reason. Arch Coal’s default on $3.2 billion will raise the metals and mining sector’s trailing 12-month default rate from 11% at the end of December to 15% through today.  However, it will bring the default rate […]

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