Article
November 29, 2022
In April, we highlighted the tight correlation between the size of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet and the S&P 500 Index. Generally, when the Federal Reserve adds liquidity by expanding its balance sheet through Quantitative Easing, volatility is suppressed, and asset prices generally rise. The opposite was true when the Fed paused QE or removed liquidity through Quantitative Tightening, as […]
April 21, 2022
Market volatility has been on the rise this year. At its worst levels, the S&P 500 Index was down more than 12% from the start of the year before cutting those losses in half by quarter-end. There are plenty of headlines to blame. Record inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and interest rate hikes are certainly contributing to the increase in volatility. However, […]
July 27, 2021
For Illustrative Purposes Only As of May 2021 the S&P 500 price is 169% above its historical trend line, this is the highest level in 140 years. Last time prices were at a historic high was the dot com crash in 2000 (123% above trend). Every time market prices have risen greater than 44% above the trend, the S&P 500 […]