What’s Next for Equities
September 7, 2017
Let’s Go Streaking. Let’s go all the way back to January when markets started off 2017 with a heavy dose of what we would describe as “Cautious Optimism“. Cautious about a new administration and untested leader in President Trump, but optimistic about a business friendly agenda in tax reform and healthcare. In February we published a research post highlighting rare […]
What the Fed is Watching
March 14, 2017
(See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, whether written or spoken by a Federal Reserve Bank member, states that future decisions are “data dependent”. Taking them at their word, we see across the board that recent economic […]
Bond Investors: Beware the Ides of March
March 8, 2017
Beware the Ides of March The Ides of March is a day on the Roman calendar that corresponds to March 15th, notorious as the date of the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BC. The death of Caesar made March 15th a turning point in Roman history, one of the key events that marked the transition from the historical period […]
Winning Streaks:Why You Should Pay Attention
February 17, 2017
After such a record move, many investors are wondering if we gone too far too fast. Maybe. But maybe not. The S&P 500 Index is exhibiting a rare bullish behavior seen only 4 times since 1985. And its something few analysts are talking about. This market behavior was seen multiple times in the 1990’s Bull Market era, but observed just once in […]
Chapter 11 Filings Reach 2008 Level
May 11, 2016
Through May 3, 2016 US Chapter 11 filings have accelerated to match the pace set in the Great Recession of 2008. So far this year, 37 companies with $100 million or more in debt have sought bankruptcy protection, the same number that was reached in May of 2008. The chart below highlights the Chapter 11 filings through May of each […]
Raising Rates Into Defaults
January 12, 2016
We have been stating for the past six months that risk almost always starts at the “fringe” and works its way to the quality. The troubles in the energy patch are not isolated. The defaults will eventually work their way across multiple industry groups, as the excess in credit begins to reset. Defaults on speculative debt are nothing new. However, there is […]