The next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is set for June 19, 2019. Based on the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability screen (WIRP), markets are pricing in a 20% chance for a rate cut next week, an 84% chance in July, and a more than 94% chance of a rate cut in September. Bloomberg WIRP as of 6.12.2019 Beware […]
The current rally that began in Q4 2016 has been fueled by earnings growth. Out of the eleven sectors that make up the S&P 500 index, Technology has been the standout momentum leader delivering nearly double the return of the broader S&P since the rally began. With 492 out of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, first quarter 2019 earnings season […]
Let’s Go Streaking. Let’s go all the way back to January when markets started off 2017 with a heavy dose of what we would describe as “Cautious Optimism“. Cautious about a new administration and untested leader in President Trump, but optimistic about a business friendly agenda in tax reform and healthcare. In February we published a research post highlighting rare […]
(See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, whether written or spoken by a Federal Reserve Bank member, states that future decisions are “data dependent”. Taking them at their word, we see across the board that recent economic […]
Could a Fed Rate Cut Be Bearish?