November 29, 2022
The Real Fed Pivot

The Only Fed Pivot that Matters

In April, we highlighted the tight correlation between the size of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet and the S&P 500 Index. Generally, when the Federal Reserve adds liquidity by expanding its balance sheet through Quantitative Easing, volatility is suppressed, and asset prices generally rise. The opposite was true when the Fed paused QE or removed liquidity through Quantitative Tightening, as […]
April 21, 2022
The Fed and Market Volatility

The Fed and Market Volatility:

Market volatility has been on the rise this year. At its worst levels, the S&P 500 Index was down more than 12% from the start of the year before cutting those losses in half by quarter-end. There are plenty of headlines to blame. Record inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and interest rate hikes are certainly contributing to the increase in volatility. However, […]
April 3, 2020

Bear Market Road Map: What Happens Next

What Happens Next? Analysts, commentators, and managers are all taking turns making predictions about where financial markets will bottom. While modern markets have never faced a global health pandemic with the magnitude of COVID-19, history is filled with examples of unexpected headlines and “Black Swan” events that take analysts and investors by surprise. In fact, that’s how most Bear markets […]
December 27, 2012
Searching For Santa

Searching for Santa

It seems every year around this time we hear about the Santa Claus Rally, a period of time when markets supposedly provide a bullish backdrop for stock investors. With just a few days left in the year I thought it might be interesting to test the Santa Claus rally assumption.  Examining data over the past two decades shows the last […]