June 13, 2019

Could a Fed Rate Cut Be Bearish?

After the S&P 500 suffered one of its worst May’s in decades, stocks are rallying so far in June so far in June on expectations the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. Despite the current optimism, history has shown that a rate cut from here could actually be bearish for stocks. Here’s why
June 4, 2019

Have Corporate Profits Peaked?

After marking a new all-time high in April, the S&P 500 Index fell -6.3% in May, making it the worst May for the index since the Flash Crash of 2010, and the second worst since 1962. Escalating Trade War headlines are partly to blame for the recent increase in volatility, but there are other headwinds for markets that may present […]
March 14, 2017

What The Fed is Watching

Last week we shared how the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability Indicator reading reached the 100 percent level for a rate increase at the March 15th FOMC meeting. (See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, […]
March 8, 2017

Bond Investors: Beware the Ides of March

While stocks are off to a strong start this year, most bond indexes are down and the risks for bond investors continues to grow. The culprit? Rising interest rates. When rates rise, bond prices fall. The next Federal Open Markets Committee interest rate announcement is March 15th. What is the probability of another increase in rates? What about further rate […]