The housing market just sent a signal about the state of the economy, and it is one worth watching.
According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales fell 9.3% in December, the sharpest drop since April 2020. The index sank to 71.8, missing every economist estimate in Bloomberg’s latest survey.
This wasn’t a regional fluke. Contract signings fell across all four U.S. regions, with double-digit declines in three. Even after seasonal adjustments, this was the largest December drop on record, going back to 2001. That points to something more than normal winter slowdown.
This drop follows several months of improving pending and closed sales, raising real questions about whether housing momentum is already stalling out.
Prices are still rising, just more slowly. Inventory remains tight, and affordability is still the core constraint.
