Optimism among small businesses has hit a new low for 2025, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipping to 98.2 in October. That marked its weakest reading since early in the year and signals growing caution among small firms as they navigate the cooling economy.
Hiring plans remain flat, but concerns over labor quality surged to 27%, the highest since late 2021 — a sign of friction in a softening job market.
Profitability and sales are also deteriorating, with a 9-point drop in owners reporting better profits and a 6-point decline in those seeing higher sales.
The NFIB data underscores a key theme: restrictive monetary policy is quietly cooling the economy, reinforcing the structural bid for Treasuries amid slowing growth momentum.
