The U.S. agricultural sector is going through a shift, with the trade deficit reaching a record $28.6 billion in the first half of 2025. This is a reversal for a sector that has maintained a trade surplus for five decades.
A key factor is China’s pivot to Brazil for agricultural imports, which has significantly impacted U.S. export volumes. Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports are rising to meet growing consumer demand and domestic production limits.
This imbalance began with the 2018 trade war and has been compounded by ongoing policy-driven disruptions, including a new round of U.S. tariffs that raised the average tariff rate to its highest level since WWII.
These trends highlight the broader structural changes in global agriculture.
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